Why Polls Matter

The Bush Administration is well known for ignoring polls, especially the ones showing low approval ratings. While I'm sure they secretly basked in the glow when the ratings were sky-high after 9-11, no one was asking if he believed in polls either; the opposite of a "sunny weather" phenomenon, only getting asked about poll numbers when they are going down.

After reading a passage in chapter 9 of Machiavelli's "The Prince" (Concerning A Civil Principality), I wondered if Bush's fate was described 500 years ago. Here, a "prince" was any sovereign leader of a State and "people" meaning the citizens of a free state as opposed to the subjects of a monarchy.

The worst that a prince may expect from a hostile people is to be abandoned by them;

My question is whether this is exactly what happened to Bush after Katrina. Through his personal inaction and acceptance of the incompetence of others. The best quote of article is,

"Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job," Bush said.

Brown resigned 10 days later.

Bush was abandoned by the people. His stubbornness continues through Obama's fateful inauguration. Could it have triggered the next step (see Machiavelli chap 19 "That One Should Avoid Being Despised And Hated")?

So, why do polls matter? Consider another quote from the L.A. Times article on Bush's former aides and their take on his presidency.

In the months after the 9/11 attacks, Dimock said, when his polling asked for a single word to describe Bush's presidency, the most frequent responses were "leadership" and "strength." After Katrina, he said, "the top word was 'incompetent.' "

Bush liked to brush off bad poll numbers by saying that making tough decisions makes you unpopular. People weren't just disagreeing with his decisions, they were changing their opinion his ability to lead. So, like the proverbial baby and bath water, Bush's rejection of polls didn't just disregard the people's opinion of him but turned a blind eye to the people's disregard and rejection of his presidency.